Back in 2018, a mere eight words to ignite a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the words were greeted with wild cheering as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
In that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he would later replace.
The Shift in Position and Closed Debates
In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.
Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
Pressure Building on Europe
Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. And, if EU relations may not be the central crisis of British politics, a lid which was firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.
And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains quantified in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals
Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people by which youths can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.
David Lammy muses openly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.
While the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.
The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism
Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again by warning a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- First, he believes a customs pact is now significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous sectors, including the environment.
- Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced British officials that former EU partners have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.
A Bizarre Document and Strategic Calculations
This strange and concerning document asserts Europe faces cultural extinction because of immigration. It includes only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that the US government will intervene in our politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.
However, instead of deciding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation & The Ghost from the Past
All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt to become leader but merely an attempt to keep open the “option” of remain in a future vote. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a group of senior ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Risk & A Prudent Reminder
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be prudent of him to recall the impact just a few words had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.
